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Press Release
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These are the results of the latest
poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey
Research in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between December 6-8,
2005. Total size of the sample is 1316 adults interviewed face to
face in 118 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%.
For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or
Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email
Voting Intentions and Considerations in the Upcoming Legislative
Elections
If elections are held today, findings show that 78% of the
Palestinians would participate (compared to 74% last September).
Among those intending to participate in the upcoming parliamentary
elections, 50% will vote for Fateh, 32% for Hamas, 9% for other
factions and groups including independents, and 9% remain undecided.
Last September, Fateh received 47% of the vote, while Hamas received
30%, others factions 11%, and 11% were undecided. In the Gaza Strip,
vote for Fateh increases from 47% to 53% during the same period.
Poverty/unemployment is the most serious problem confronting
Palestinians today in the eyes of 37% of the public, followed by
corruption and Israeli occupation measures (25% each), and finally
internal anarchy and chaos (12%). Last September,
poverty/unemployment received 40%, occupation and corruption
received 25% each, and internal anarchy received 8%.
From among a list of eight vital considerations for voting in the
parliamentary election, # 1 is the ability to fight corruption
receiving 30%, # 2 the name or party affiliation of the list with
15%, # 3 and 4 ability to improve economic conditions and ability to
reach a peace agreement with Israel with 13% each, # 5 ability to
maintain national unity with 9%, # 6 ability to enforce law and
order with 8%, # 7 ability to protect refugee rights in negotiations
with 7%, and finally # 8 ability to insure the continuation of the
intifada with 4%. This order is similar to the September findings
with the exception of the first consideration which three months ago
received 24%.
In a detailed comparison of the ability of the different groups to
deliver on seven of the vital voters’ considerations, Fateh is seen
as the most able in five and Hamas in two. These results are similar
to those we obtained last September with Fateh widening the gap
against Hamas in its favor. Fateh is perceived as the most able to
improve the economy (receiving 50% vs. 30% for Hamas), to push the
peace process forward (receiving 66% vs. 21% for Hamas), to protect
national unity (receiving 47% vs. 36% for Hamas), to protect refugee
rights (receiving 48% vs. 36% for Hamas), and to enforce law and
order (receiving 56% vs. 31% for Hamas). Hamas is perceived as the
most able to fight corruption (receiving 48% vs. 36% to Fateh) and
to insure the continuation of the intifada (receiving 64% vs. 24% to
Fateh).
Public satisfaction with the performance of PA president Mahmud
Abbas stands at 62% compared to 64% last September. In this survey
34% say they are not satisfied with Abbas’ performance.
• In a closed question, in a contest for the office of PA president
between Mahmud Abbas, Mahmud Zahhar, and Mustafa Barghouti, Abbas
comes first with 41% followed by Zahhar with 21% and Barghouti with
19%. These results are similar to those obtained in our last poll in
September.
In another closed question with a list of 8 candidates, in a contest
over the office of vice president, Marwan Barghouti receives the
greatest level of support with 30% followed by Mohammad Dahlan with
14%, Ismail Haniyyah (13%), Mahmud Zahhar (11%), Mustafa Barghouti
(8%), Saeb Erikat and Farouq Qaddoumi (6% each), and finally Ahmad
Qurai (3%). The percentages for the September poll were as follows:
24% for Marwan Barghouti, 9% for Dahlan, 13% for Haniyyah, 14% for
Zahhar, 9% for Mustafa Barghouti, 6% for Erikat, 8% for Qaddoumi,
and 6% for Qurai.
In a closed question with a list of five candidates, in a contest
over the office of prime minister, Marwan Barghouti comes first with
36% followed by Zahhar with 20%, Mustafa Barghouti with 14%, Dahlan
with 11%, and Qurai with 6%. Last September, Marwan Barghouti
received 30%, Zahhar 22%, Mustafa Barghouti 17%, Dahlan 8%, and
Qurai 8%.
Among the whole population (those intending and those not intending
to participate in the elections), support for Fateh reaches 45% and
Hamas 28%. Last September, support for Fateh stood at 39% and Hamas
at 27%. Support for Fateh in the Gaza Strip increases from 40% to
49% during the same period.
Source: Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research
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